Yes, I get the idea. Yes, I would love to earn money from playing video games. Yes, I still think it's gonna be shit.
Don't get me wrong, the first time I heard the premise, I thought it was cool too. Except now I've actually thought about it.
Here's the idea with play to earn: a project creates a game which only their NFT holders can play. By playing this game, you can earn tokens which can be exchanged for in-game rewards and also sold on the secondary market. The logic therefore follows; play a game you enjoy and earn real life money.
Here's my first big issue with it.
The game has to not suck
Easier said than done. Anyone remember CyberPunk? Like that game an actual game developer tried to make and failed horribly? Enough projects trip over smart contracts and cool mint animations, developing a whole game that not only functions but is exciting enough to keep your audience involved is no weekender project. Big fish only.
Where do the dollars come from?
This follows from point 1. If no one wants to play your game, you make no money. "Yeah but imagine if you could earn and trade Fortnite skins on the blockchain!" - fair enough, if someone makes literally the biggest game of the decade, discount this article because they're off to the moon.
Otherwise, the dollars come from gamers themselves (see point 1) and speculators. Speculators are hoping for an increase in demand or decrease in supply - #economics - if playing the game generates in-game income, then supply is at risk of increasing, and your user base is constrained to the number of NFTs you distribute, so how does the cash flow?
Play to earn already exists...it just sucks
Full disclosure, I've played RuneScape in my 20s. Anyone else who's played an MMORPG will know of "Real World Trading", a cardinal sin in the MMO world where players exchange in-game currency for real-world cash...sound familiar? So why don't you farm gold on RuneScape?
Two reasons: bots and Venezuelans. Hear me out that's a lot less racist than it sounds.
Using RuneScape as an example, a skilled player with a high level account could fetch around $3/hr by generating gold in-game and selling it. Not worth it in the western world as a career but in countries like Venezuela, the economy is struggling, jobs are difficult to find and the currency has collapsed, meaning earning $3 USD per hour puts you in the top tier of income.
Secondly, why sit in front of a laptop clicking like an idiot to make money? Why not write a script? The underworld of MMO botting is a sophisticated and profitable one, with bot tech outpacing bot detection on even the most established and sophisticated games.
So what happens if a profitable play to earn project comes to the fore? Armies of gold farmers and botters descend, leading to massive deflation. Play to earn fuck all.
Is there a solution?
There are a handful of things projects can do to combat these issues, and it's important to look out for when you're considering entering a P2E project.
Reward skill, not hours
Think COD over click and wait games. Harder to ruin with bots and deflation because at least for the first phase of a game's life, human players are superior
Anchor value outside of the game
Despite everything I've said, if there's a BAYC on offer over an online game that sucks, best believe I'm taking a suitcase full of laptops to Venezuela for a recruitment drive. Doing this reduces the pressure on the game itself and doesn't require a self-contained ecosystem for it to live
Summary: play to earn isn't the game changer you think
Maybe someone will do it properly, and to that team I wish you the best, but I'm yet to be convinced. The main point here is don't drop an ETH every time someone puts P2E on a roadmap - it's no silver bullet.
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